This paper quantifies the economic impact of uncertainty shocks in the UK using data that span the recent Great … Recession. We find that uncertainty shocks have a significant impact on economic activity in the UK, depressing industrial … negligible after 18 months. Interestingly, the impact of uncertainty shocks on industrial production in the UK is strikingly …

Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in … recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap …