The authors find that supply risk in the market for Treasury bills adds between 10 basis points and 40 basis points to the standard deviation of the T-bill interest rate. The risk will probably increase unless the Fed expands the set of assets that it uses to conduct open market operations.

This article studies the relation between IPO investment and the rate of interest. The 1950s and early 1960s, especially, were periods of very low real interest rates, and IPO investment was very low, with firms delaying their IPOs significantly. The authors find a qualitative difference between...

This paper analyzes how political stability depends on economic factors. Fluctuations in groups' economic capacities and in their abilities to engage in rent-seeking or predatory behavior create periodic incentives for those groups to renege on their social obligations. A constitution remains in...

The term "new economy" has, more than anything, come to mean a technological transformation, and in particular its embodiment in the computer and the internet. These technologies are more human capital intensive than earlier ones and have probably hastened the pace of the shift in the U.S....

Aside from the equilibrium that Hotelling (1931) displayed, his model of non-renewable resources also contains a continuum of bubble equilibria. In all the equilibria the price of the resource rises at the rate of interest. In a bubble equilibrium, however, the consumption of the resource peters...

Our paper shows that investment by new firms responds to Tobin's Q much more elastically than does investment by incumbent firms. To explain this fact we build a model in which the investment-supply curve of incumbent firms is highly elastic and positively related to Q. However, when variation...

Investment in reputation responds positively to news shocks and to current aggregate shocks when they are autocorrelated. Idiosyncratic risk is contractionary and reduces the response to aggregate shocks. In this sense the rise in idiosyncratic risk can explain the great moderation -- the two...