I determine expected long-run inflation in a two-state New Keynesian model driven by natural interest-rate uncertainty. Monetary policy switches between discretion in ‘normal times’ and zero-lower-bound episodes when it is passive. Long-run US inflation ranges from −1.8% to +1.2% p.a.

Recent theoretical and empirical work has cast doubt on the hypotheses of a linear Phillips curve and a symmetric quadratic loss function underlying traditional thinking on monetary policy. This paper analyzes the Barro-Gordon optimal monetary policy problem under alternative loss...

This paper studies the welfare implications of financial stability and inflation stabilization as distinct monetary policy objectives. Introducing asymmetric aversion to exchange rate depreciation in the Barro-Gordon model mitigates inflation bias due to credibility problems. The net welfare...

Flight-to-quality during times of financial crisis is a feature of financial markets. Here, a simple strategic model demonstrates that some preference asymmetry is sufficient to generate endogenous flight-to-quality from an emerging stock market to US Treasury bonds. The empirical evidence from...

Is systematic monetary policy a driver of the forward premium puzzle, i.e. the tendency of high interest-rate currencies to appreciate, thus strongly violating Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP)? We address this question by studying a battery of monetary policy rules in a small open economy that is...

This book reviews the state-of-the-art of the literature on international financial contagion. The individual contributions bridge the gap between econometric theory and evidence, while the comprehensive range of financial market and country regions under consideration highlights the future...