Despite its varying pattern of cyclical ups and downs, the British economy has, on average,grown at 2.5% per year for six decades, with minimal breaks in trend. So history warns us that government policies to change that trend may have little effect. There is a bit more movement in the trend...

This paper discusses the economic impact of the Basel III reforms to banking regulation. We find that the long-term impact should be much less than many in the industry fear but the required accompanying changes to business models, business processes and governance, need to be carefully managed...

We investigate how central bank forecasts of GDP growth evolve through time, and how they are adapted in the light of official estimates of actual GDP growth. Using data for 1988-2005, we find that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has typically adjusted its forecast for growth over the...

We examine the international propagation of the financial crisis of 2008, and compare it with that of the crisis of 1931. Both crises featured a flight to liquidity and safety. We argue that the collateral squeeze in the United States, which became intense after the failure of Lehman Brothers,...

The paper reviews the arrangements for meeting additional post-crisis demand for international liquidity. It distinguishes between reserve creation and reserve pooling as a basis for multilateral liquidity facilities; reserve pooling arrangements carry the risk that, in a general crisis, all the...