Statisticians generally consider statistical modeling superior (or at least a useful supplement) to experience-based intuition for estimating the outputs of a complex system. But recent psychological research has led to an enhancement of experience-based intuition known as reference class...

Each of an organization’s many activities transforms inputs into outputs. Managing these activities involves allocating input resources for some activities and assigning output targets for others. Making these decisions is especially difficult in the presence of uncertainty. In practice, many...

Many companies set performance targets for their divisions to decentralize the decision-making process and communicate with outside investors. This paper analyzes the effects of performance targets on the decision-making behavior of the divisions. We introduce the notion of an 'effective utility...

This paper presents an axiomatic approach to the problem of aggregating expert assessments of an event's probability into some group probability assessment. A multiplicative formula is derived.

The subjectivist theory of probability specifies certain axioms of rationality which together lead to both a theory of probability and a theory of preference. The theory of probability is used throughout the sciences while the theory of preferences is used in economics. Results in quantum...

This Note considers the problem of aggregating individual probability estimates of an event to obtain a group estimate. Norman Dalkey has argued that no rigorous theory of probability aggregation is possible for the following reasons: (1) There is no consistent way of aggregating individual...

Savage's axioms show the rationality of maximizing expected utility when all uncertainties are explicitly modelled. But individuals actually make decisions in bounded contexts called small worlds. Savage's axioms do not imply the optimality of maximizing expected utility in small worlds unless...

The additive utility formula developed by Harsanyi specifies how a rational ethical individual acting on behalf of other people ought to behave. Unfortunately the formula is not invariant to arbitrary utility transformations and hence requires interpersonal comparisons of utility. Many...