Should econometricians always incorporate economic theory in their models or only when unrestricted estimators are found to violate an inviolable theory? Using Monte Carlo experiments, we find that econometricians should use economic theory to the fullest extent possible. To paraphrase Leamer's...

Forecasts of economic time series are often evaluated according to their accuracy as measured by either quantitative precision or qualitative reliability. We argue that consumers purchase forecasts for the potential utility gains from utilizing them, not for their accuracy. Using Monte Carlo...

Should the choice of numeraire price for modelling profit functions be arbitrary, or is more careful study needed? Here, the choice of numeraire is examined using tests for models specification and out-of-sample predictive accuracy based on the crop and livestock data obtained from Iowa. The...

Neoclassical economic theory provides an important conceptual framework for the analysis of agricultural production. Theory provides little guidance, however, in the actual specification of empirical models. This paper applies an integrated approach for choosing between price expectation...

This article considers two coarse measures applicable to antitrust policy: one of market concentration, the Herfindahl--Hirschman Index (HHI) and one of market dominance, threshold value. Calculations of threshold value are compared to HHI values to determine when thresholds might be of specific...

Resurgent cotton production compels better acreage forecasts for planning seed, chemical, and other input requirements. Structural models describe leading acreage response indicators, and forecasts are compared to time-series models. Cotton price, loan rate, deficiency payments, lagged corn...

Poultry litter can be used as plant nutrients or cattle feed. Both of these alternatives may increase phosphorus concentration in the nearby watershed. Use of phosphorus consistent litter application rule in nutrient management combined with permit system has potential to curtail the over...

An adaptive regression model is employed for estimating pre-and post-boll weevil eradication cotton-acreage response. Results indicate cotton acreage becoming more inelastic to own- and cross-price changes. As a result of this shift in acreage response and yield increases from eradication, net...