In this paper we analyse the dynamics of both Romer's original model of endogenous growth and of a modified version where the level of labour and human capital are determined endogenously. We find that the original model can have an indeterminate Balanced Growth Path (BGP) if there is some...

In this paper we explore whether the changing composition of output in response to technology shocks can play a significant role in the propagation of shocks over time. For this purpose we study two multisector RBC models, with two and a three sectors. We find that, whereas the two sectors model...

Despite the lackluster performance of the U.S. economy, the profitability of the U.S. commercial banking industry was again high in 2002, and the return on bank assets reached its highest level in more than three decades. Profitability was spurred in considerable part by declines in market...

Amid a strengthening economic expansion, U.S. commercial banks remained highly profitable in 2003. Return on assets reached a record level for the second year in a row, and return on equity was near the top of its recent range. Banks' profits were bolstered by decreased loan-loss provisions as a...

The latest revision of the Internal Ratings Based approach of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision's New Capital Accord Proposal for retail portfolios contains a significant innovation relative to previous versions: the recognition that, for revolving credits, future margin income will be...

Over the Great Moderation period in the United States, we find that corporate credit spreads embed crucial information about the one-year-ahead probability of recession, as evidenced by both in- and out-of-sample fit. Furthermore, the incidence of “false positive” predictions of recession is...

A striking feature of financial market behaviour in recent years has been the low level of price volatility over a wide range of financial assets and markets. The issue has attracted the attention of central bankers and financial regulators due to the potential implications for financial...

This paper presents a business cycle model with a propagation mechanism capable of generating persistence of output growth comparable to that observed in the U.S. data. The key is that in this model consumption and labor move together not only at the impact of a shock, but also for a few periods...