In this paper, we seek to examine how well prediction markets performed, compared to opinion polls, in forecasting the outcome of the 2010 US Senate elections. Prediction markets are speculative or betting markets created or employed for the purpose of aggregating information and making...

Although there have been many evaluations of the Fed Greenbook forecasts, we analyze them in a different dimension. We examine the revisions of these forecasts in the context of fixed event predictions to determine how new information is incorporated in the forecasting process. This analysis...

Using the Carlson and Parkin (1975) framework and employing the Pesaran–Timmermann (1992) Predictive Failure statistic, we evaluate several consensus forecast series from CESIfo's World Economic Survey. Several issues are examined related to interpreting qualitative survey responses. We define...

In this paper we jointly evaluate the Federal Reserve staff forecasts of U.S. real output growth and the inflation rate, assuming that the forecasts are to be used as inputs for the Taylor rule. Our simple methodology generates “policy forecast errors” which have a direct interpretation for...

In this paper we present an evaluation of forecasts of a vector of variables of the German economy made by different institutions. Our method permits one to evaluate the forecasts for each year and then if one is interested to combine the years. We use our method to determine an overall winner...

Over the past 50 or so years, I have been concerned with the quality of economic forecasts and have written both about the procedures for evaluating these predictions and the results that were obtained from these evaluations. In this paper I provide some perspectives on the issues involved in...