Many decision-aiding technologies require valid probability judgements to be elicited from domain experts. But how valid are experts' probability judgements? It is of considerable practical importance to identify the conditions which affect the quality of these judgments. Descriptive...

Good decisions and policy depend on a reasonable degree of foresight; this in turn relies on a forecasting process that is well-integrated with the strategic management of an organization. There is, however, very little research into the forecast process within organizations generally, or...

Although important both theoretically and practically, the nature of consumer economic expectation formation has been little studied, particularly by psychologists. The most relevant previous research suggests that expectations are based on a heuristic that results in them being significantly...

This paper aims to examine potential differences in perceived usefulness of various forecasting formats from the perspectives of providers and users of predictions. Experimental procedure consists of asking participants to assume the role of forecast providers and to construct forecasts using...