It is commonly agreed that the term spread and stock returns are useful in predicting recessions. We investigate whether interest rate

This paper investigates the role of inflation risk in a model of the price dividend ratio, combining a dynamic Gordon model specification with the inflation-augmented capital asset pricing model (CAPM). The model is estimated for the Euro Area and U.S. and tested against traditional models. For...

This note examines the impact of interest rate and money shocks on Euro Area and U.S. financial markets. More specifically, a dynamic Gordon model is developed for stock and bond returns, which allows for a decomposition in fundamental factors. It is found that the impact of official interest...

This paper examines what factors move US and European stock and bond markets, extending earlier work by Campbell and Ammer (1993). Inflation news is incorporated into the stock and bond decomposition and explicit attention is given to different horizons over which expectations are formed....

It is commonly agreed that the term spread and stock returns are useful in predicting recessions. We extend these empirical findings by examining interest rate and stock market volatility as additional recession indicators. Both risk-return analysis and the theory of investment under uncertainty...

We elaborate on the consumption capital asset pricing model (CCAPM) to reveal a set of underlying forces that determine asset returns. We use generalized preferences, allow for labor-leisure choice, a broad asset portfolio, and holding international claims. A calibration of the model with US...

This paper decomposes US and Euro area excess stock and bond return innovations into news factors using the Campbell-Schiller methodology. The results indicate that stock return volatility is mostly due to volatility of future excess return news. Inflation news plays a minor role although it is...

This report analyses the main developments in housing finance in the euro area in the decade, covering the period from 1999 to 2007. It looks at mortgage indebtedness, various characteristics of loans for house purchase, the funding of such loans and the spreads between the interest rates on...