Using new series of aggregate and disaggregate output, this paper examines the historical pattern of volatility of economic fluctuations in Italy. Results evidence a higher stability in the postwar era, with respect to both the prewar and the interwar periods. Evidence is provided that the...

In this paper we study top executive turnover in Italian Banks over the period 1993-2001. We relate the probability of survival of top executives (Presidents, CEOs and General Managers) to bank performance and the manager’s local connections, controlling for (observable and unobservable) bank...

Theoretical models of investment under uncertainty predict that the sign and the strength of the investment -uncertaintyrelationship is in principle ambiguous and can vary greatly across groups of firms depending on the degree of irreversibility of investment and the market power of the firm....

In this paper we build a measure of potential private-sector value added for the Italian economy that is consistent with the capital accumulation process in the Banca d'Italia's Quarterly Model -and more generally with the rest of the supply-side block of that model.

The creation of the Euro area has increased the importance of obtaining timely information about short-term changes in the area's real activity. In this paper we propose a number of alternative short-term forecasting models, ranging from simple ARIMA models to more complex cointegrated VAR and...