There has been growing interest in the use of financial spreads as advance indicators of real activity and inflation. Empirical evidence is marshalled on a range of spreads when these are used in vector autoregressive models of the UK and German economies. It is found that they do have...

There has been growing interest in the use of financial spreads as advance indicators of real activity and inflation. Empirical evidence is marshalled on a range of spreads when these are used in vector autoregressive models of the U.K. and German economies. It is found that they do provide...

Aggregate Employment has changed drastically in the UK since 1979, and its volatility seems amenable to an analysis based on the REH. This paper reviews numerical methods for estimating optimal employment plans based on the joint presence of forward-looking expectations and costs in adjusting...

There is a range of formal approaches to the modelling of policy responses. This paper will give a very short summary of the broad approaches, which are currently used, then a new approach will be proposed. The main objective of this paper is to explain the motivation and workings of a new...

We begin reviewing the standard Barro-Gordon model of inflation bias and considering the delegation of monetary policy to a more conservative central banker as suggested by Rogoff. We emphasise how inflation bias can be reduced, seemingly at the expense of increased stabilisation cost. We note...

This paper discusses the practical application of identification in cointegrated systems. It will argue that in a common realistic modelling situation of a limited data set and the theory requirements of a fairly rich model, the techniques proposed in the existing literature are almost...