We evaluate the usefulness of the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter as a proxy for rational expectations, using long runs of annual US inflation data. Our conclusion is that while the HP series are not fully rational in the sense of Muth (1961), they do generally meet the criterion of `weak...

We analyse the determinants of the public's relative concerns about inflation and unemployment using responses to the Gallup Poll question on the relative seriousness of inflation and unemployment. We then estimate the rate of inflation that politicians will choose to impose on the US economy...

We have succesfully estimated the public's indifference map between inflation and unemployment. The indifference curves are nonlinear and concave to the origin for most unemployment rates; the data are insufficient to permit us to be sure of the form at low unemployment rates. There is clear...