The paper examines the impact of uncertainty on the decision problem of an international firm. The uncertainty under which the firm decides on home and foreign supply is affected by an information system that conveys public signals about the random spot exchange rate. Our notion of transparency...

In this paper we present an intertemporal model of the spot and forward markets for foreign exchange. We analyze the implications of central bank interventions on the spot market for the risk premium in the currency forward market and discuss the consequences for the allocation of exchange rate...

This paper constructs an intertemporal model of the spot and forward markets for foreign exchange and shows that in equilibrium the forward market is unbiased, i.e., the forward rate is equal to the expected spot rate which will prevail in the market next period. This holds true as long as the...

In this paper we study the impact of more transparency in the foreign exchange market on the <i>ex ante</i> expected volume of international trade. Transparency is measured by the informational content of publicly observable signals. These signals convey information about the use of policy instruments...

The purpose of this note is to show that a positive effect of exchange rate volatility on export production has a theoretical basis. The key to this claim is that, as the exchange rate volatility increases, so does the value of the real option to export to the world market. Higher volatility...

The paper revisits the impact of uncertainty on the decision problem of a bank. The bank extends risky loans to private investors and sells deposits to savers at fixed rates. The uncertainty under which deposit/loan-portfolios are chosen by banks is endogenized through an information system that...