We demonstrate that average interest rates in the EMU countries in 1990-98, with the exception of the period of exchange market turmoil in 1992-93, moved very closely in relation to average output gaps and inflation as suggested by the Taylor rule.

We demonstrate that average interest rates in the EMU countries in 1990-98, with the exception of the period of exchange market turmoil in 1992-93, moved very closely with average output gaps and inflation as suggested by the Taylor rule.

This paper estimates trend growth rates for a sample of industrial countries by applying Okun's law in first differences. Despite the simplicity of the approach and the restrictive assumptions, the method typically yields reasonable results when trend shifts in the Okun coefficients and changes...

Recently, the Bank of Japan outlined a "two perspectives" approach to the conduct of monetary policy that focuses on risks to price stability over different time horizons. Interpreting these as pertaining to different frequency bands, we use band spectrum regression to study the determination of...

Following Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) and Estrella and Mishkin (1995), we study the ability of the term structure to predict recessions in eight countries. The results are fourfold. First, the yield curve predicts future recessions in all countries. Second, term spreads forecast recessions...

This Paper estimates output gaps for Hong Kong, Korea, the Philippines, Singapore and Taiwan, employing the HP filter and unobservable-components (UC) techniques. The latter approach assumes that actual output is the sum of potential output, which follows a random walk with a time-varying drift,...

This paper uses weekly data on short-term eurorates for ten countries for the period 1979–96 to document that the ability of the expectations hypothesis (EH) to account for movements in the term structure is greater, and that short-term interest rates are more predictable, under fixed than...