It is widely recognized that taking cointegration relationships into consideration is useful in forecasting cointegrated processes. However, there are a few practical problems when forecasting large cointegrated processes using the well-known vector error correction model. First, it is hard to...

This paper is concerned with the estimation of the autoregressive parameter of dynamic panel data models. We propose a bias-corrected GMM estimator whose bias is smaller than that of many existing GMM estimators. And we propose a small sample corrected estimator of the variance in order to...

The usual Wald test for the Granger non-causality in cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) processes is known to have the asymptotically non-standard distribution. There have been proposed a few alternative (inefficient) methods which give the asymptotically standard distribution. However,...

In this paper, we propose a new approach to test the hypothesis of long-run Granger non-causality in cointegrated systems. We circumvent the problem of singularity of the variance-covariance matrix associated with the usual Wald type test by proposing a generalized inverse procedure, and an...

It is widely believed that taking cointegration and integration into consideration is useful in constructing long-term forecasts for cointegrated processes. This paper shows that imposing neither cointegration nor integration leads to superior long-term forecasts.