The purpose of this article is to describe how inflation analysis and forecasting has been carried out in the Bank, with particular emphasis on recent research and the new challenges facing the Bank following the launch of the euro on 1 January 1999. Broadly speaking the approach adopted by the...

In this paper we focus on the development of multiple time series models for forecasting Irish Inflation. The Bayesian approach to the estimation of vector autoregressive (VAR) models is employed. This allows the estimated models combine the evidence in the data with any prior information which...

Eight years have passed since the European Central Bank (ECB) launched its Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The SPF asks a panel of approximately 75 forecasters located in the European Union (EU) for their short- to longer-term expectations for macroeconomic variables such as euro area...

Irish industrial policy explicitly encouraged job generation in certain “designated” areas via, amongst other things, preferential grant treatment, job targets and the building of advance factories in the IDA’s (Industrial Development Authority) regional industrial plans of 1973-1977 and...

In this paper we examine the relationship between oil prices and consumer gas prices in the euro area. The main features of the paper are: (1) the combination of low frequency (semi-annual) consumer gas price data on price levels from Eurostat with higher frequency (monthly) index HICP data; (2)...

In Ireland the link between real disequilibrium (such as the unemployment gap) and inflation (either price or wage) is blurred by external factors, operating through traded goods price inflation. Attempts to extract information about the unobservable NAIRU from aggregate inflation measures, such...

This paper examines alternative statistically-based measures of core inflation in Ireland over the period 1976-1999. A highly disaggregated (approximately 500 price series) dataset from the Irish HICP is used. The distribution of quarterly price changes is shown, in common with other...

Two routes by which foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) may transfer technology - direct R&D undertaken in Ireland or through the transfer of the fruits of R&D work undertaken by the parent firm - are examined. Direct R&D undertaken by MNEs in Ireland now accounts for two-thirds of all R&D...

Regional goals have always played an important part in Irish industrial policy. This paper examines the employment performance of two sub-regions (designated and non-designated areas) as defined by industrial policy. By employing the job flow methodology as pioneered by Davis and Haltiwanger...

The purpose of this article is to describe how inflation analysis and forecasting has been carried out in the Bank, with particular emphasis on recent research and the new challenges facing the Bank following the launch of the euro on 1 January 1999. Broadly speaking the approach adopted by the...