Modelling the Norwegian exchange rate against a basket of currencies, we find a robust long-term link between the real exchange rate and real interest differential that is consistent with purchasing power parity (PPP) and uncovered interest parity (UIP). However, PPP alone is rejected. These...

This paper analyses the dynamic effects of aggregate demand, supply and real oil price shocks on real output and unemployment. Oil price shocks are included explicitly in the model, to investigate their role in explaining periods of global recessions. The different structural disturbances are...

This paper analyses the sources of business cycles in economies that have an important energy producing sector. Especially, I investigate the effects of oil and gas extractions (energy booms) on the manufacturing sector, and analyse whether there is any evidence of a "Dutch disease", that is...

This paper calculates core inflation, by imposing long run restrictions on a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model containing the growth rate of output, inflation and oil prices. Core inflation is identified as that component in inflation that has no long run effect on output. No...

A long strand of literature has shown that the world has become more global. Yet, the recent Great Global Recession turned out to be hard to predict, with forecasters across the world committing large forecast errors. We examine whether knowledge of in-sample co-movement across countries could...

We analyze the importance of demand from emerging and developed economies as drivers of the real price of oil. Using a method that allows us to identify demand from different groups of countries across the world, we find that demand from emerging economies (most notably from Asian countries) is...

Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? According to Lubik and Schorfheide (2007) who estimate structural general equilibrium models with monetary policy rules, the answer is "Yes, some do". However, their analysis is based on a sample with multiple regime changes, which may bias...

Traditional studies of the Dutch disease do not account for productivity spillovers between the booming resource sector and other domestic sectors. We put forward a simple theory model that allows for such spillovers. We then identify and quantify these spillovers using a Bayesian Dynamic Factor...

This paper analyses the dynamic properties of several macroeconomic variables in Norway, using different unit root tests and measures of persistence. For none of the variables can we reject the hypothesis of a unit root in favour of a deterministic linear trend alternative. However, when...

This paper estimates core inflation in Norway, identified as that component of inflation that has no long-run effect on GDP. The model distinguishes explicitly between domestic and imported core inflation. The results show that (domestic) core inflation is the main component of CPI inflation....