Keynesian theory suggests that a reduction in government expenditure has a negative effect on private demand and therefore on output. Contrary, neoclassical theory argues that reduced public expenditure makes room for an expansion of the private sector and thus has a stimulating effect on the...

This paper investigates within a SVAR framework the effects of anticipated monetary policy in the euro area. Building on a procedure recently proposed by Cochrane yielding the response of output to an anticipated monetary policy impulse, we show that in the past twenty years anticipated monetary...

We argue in the present paper that the Stability and Growth Pact and its application can be improved, taking into account the experience gained during the last years. The reform debate should focus on the fundamental economic rationale and the initial orientation of the Pact. It puts more weight...

We argue in the present paper that the Stability and Growth Pact and its application can be improved, taking into account the experience gained during the last years. The reform debate should focus on the fundamental economic rationale and the initial orientation of the Pact. It puts more weight...

This paper investigates within a SVAR framework the effects of anticipated monetary policy in the euro area. Building on a procedure recently proposed by Cochrane which yields the response of output to an anticipated monetary policy impulse, we show that in the past twenty years anticipated...

This paper applies the modelling strategy of Garratt, Lee, Pesaran and Shin (2003) to the estimation of a structural cointegrated VAR model that relates the core macroeconomic variables of the Swiss economy to current and lagged values of a number of key foreign variables. We identify and test a...

We investigate the effect of forecast uncertainty in a cointegrating vector error correction model for Switzerland. Forecast uncertainty is evaluated in three different dimensions. First, we investigate the effect on forecasting performance of averaging over forecasts from different models....

Asset prices tend to undergo wide swings around long-run equilibrium values, which can have detrimental effects on the real economy. To get a better understanding of how the financial sector and the real economy interact, this paper models the long swings in the Swiss franc-US dollar foreign...

Asset prices tend to undergo wide swings around long-run equilibrium values which can have detrimental effects on the real economy. To get a better understanding of how the fi?nancial sector and the real economy interact this paper models the long swings in the Swiss franc-US dollar foreign...