Statistical similarities among the latest long expansion in the U.S. and some other past expansions, in particular that of the 1960s, are examined. Corresponding to the definition of statistical similarity, a test based on the covariance matrices of business cycle component variables for the...

This paper examines price linkages among Asian equity markets in the period surrounding the recent Asian economic, financial and currency crises. Three developed markets (Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore) and six emerging markets (Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Thailand)...

A new business cycle turning point signalling system is proposed and examined by using Japanese, US and Australian composite indexes of economic activity. Time varying transition probabilities in a Markov regime-switching model are used as the basis of the signalling system. The performance of...