This paper offers a framework for judging when the discrepancy embodied in current-account forecasts is large. The first step in implementing this framework involves developing an econometric model explaining the components of the aggregate discrepancy, estimating the associated parameters, and...

This paper offers a framework for judging when the discrepancy embodied in current account forecasts is large. The first step in implementing this framework involves developing an econometric model explaining the components of the aggregate discrepancy, estimating the associated parameters, and...

This paper offers a framework for judging when the discrepancy embodied in current account forecasts is large. The first step in implementing this framework involves developing an econometric model explaining the components of the aggregate discrepancy, estimating the associated parameters, and...

The purpose of this paper is to examine the extent to which the behavior of aggregate money holdings is influenced by foreign exchange considerations, an influence that has been labeled as currency substitution. Knowledge of the extent to which monies of different countries can substitute for...

This paper investigates the extent to which domestic money balances in Venezuela are influenced by foreign exchange considerations. To this end, individuals are assumed to choose the levels of foreign and domestic money that minimize the borrowing costs associated with a given level of monetary...

Both future disturbances and estimated coefficients contribute to the uncertainty in model-based ex ante forecasts, but only the first source is usually taken into account when calculating confidence intervals for practical applications. Schmidt (1974) and Baillie (1979) provide an easily...