Economists are often concerned with estimates of three unobservable variables: the NAIRU, the output gap, and the structural budget balance. Although the main purpose of many existing methods is to remove effects stemming from the same business cycle, the three variables are estimated in...

Denna studie visar att utfallet i avtalsrörelsen 2007 har stor betydelse för framtida produktion och sysselsättning. Beräkningar i Konjunkturinstitutets makroekonomiska modell KIMOD visar att parterna kan minska jämviktsarbetslösheten med en procentenhet genom återhållsamma avtal...

We analyse model choices of various international institutions and find that the majority of the studied central banks have chosen so-called DSGE-models. Ministry of finances have chosen to continue using so-called Semi-Structural Models (SSM) while international organisations such as the IMF...

In the past 25 years, many OECD countries have implemented fiscal contractions to strengthen their public finances. The macroeconomic outcomes of these efforts have <p> varied. With the aid of an econometric model, this paper seeks to identify the factors <p> that make contractions successful from a...</p></p>

KIMOD 1.0 is an annual large-scale macroeconomic model2 of the Swedish economy and is the result of a project that started in 2002 at the National Institute of Economic Research (NIER) in Sweden. In 2003, the model was used for the first time in policy analysis (see NIER, 2003) and from 2004...

Recent theoretical research suggest that monetary shocks might play an important role in explaining movements in the real exchange rate in the short and medium run. Empirically, the contribution of transitory (monetary) disturbances in explaining the variance decomposition of real exchange rates...

We estimate a so called common trends model of federal taxes and spending in the U.S.. Using dates on presidential terms as well as the NBER business cycle, we are able to interpret the estimated permanent shock as being of structural policy origin and the transitory shock as being of (to...

This paper estimates how the US budget responds to shocks in taxes, spending and output. In particular, we consider the dynamic adjustment of the two budget components (taxes and spending) to such shocks. The recently developed Generalized Impulse Response Function, which takes the historical...

In the past 10 to 15 years, it has been argued in the literature on "expansionary fiscal contraction" (EFC) that under certain circumstances, fiscal policy has non-Keynesian effects. We show that the real exchange rate depreciated substantially prior to fiscal contractions with a favorable...