This paper estimates measures of potential output for Israel, with the aim of providing evidence on whether the recent growth slowdown is principally a cyclical slowdown or a structural shift toward a slower growth path after the dramatic developments associated with the years of heavy...

This paper estimates measures of potential output for Israel, with the aim of providing evidence on whether the recent growth slowdown is principally a cyclical slowdown or a structural shift towards a slower growth path after the dramatic developments associated with the years of heavy...

This paper examines the predictive properties of risk indicators for the foreign exchange markets. In particular it considers the predictive properties of historical volatilities and implied volatilities for movements in various bilateral exchange rates and compares them with the analogous...

This paper discusses the viable alternatives for a suitable institutional and governance framework for the policymaking body presiding over the GMU. The authors review a series of alternatives, from the simplest one (i.e. a governors’ council formed by the governors of the national...

This paper is an empirical study of the links between monetary variables and inflation based on Cagan’s equation and its rational expectations solution, when the forcing variable is a fractionally integrated process. As demonstrated by Hamilton and Whiteman, the existence of bubbles and other...

This paper surveys the main theoretical approaches for analyzing movements in the current account of the balance of payments, from the Mundell-Fleming paradigm to modern intertemporal approaches. It discusses the main implications of these analyses for policymaking, highlighting that modern...

Defining the rules for monetary policy has been the subject of an extensive literature in monetary economics since the 1968 AMA presidential address by Milton Friedman. Starting from the contribution by Barro and Gordon (1983) the prevalent approach has hinged on optimal control techniques to...

This paper proposes a forward-looking indicator of risk in the foreign exchange markets calculated from the implied volatilities of currency options according to the Garman-Kohlhagen model. We discuss the properties of such indicator and stress that it is related to a notion of risk that does...

This paper contains an empirical analysis of currency substitution in Turkey: a simple relationship between the share of foreign currency holdings in M2X on one side and movements in the exchange rate or inflation on the other is derived from a two-stage portfolio choice model. This relationship...