We analyze the dynamics of age-structured population renewal when vital rates make a transition in a finite time interval from arbitrary initial values to any specified final values. The general solution to the renewal equation in such cases is obtained. This solution describes the birth...

We present stochastic forecasts of the Social Security trust fund by modeling key demographic and economic variables as historical time series, and using the fitted models to generate computer simulations of future fund performance. We evaluate several plans for achieving long-term solvency by...

N/A

In this paper, we compute distributions of rates of return by cohort for the Social Security retirement system, using a combination of historical data and stochastic forecasts of productivity and mortality rates. Since our forecasts of productivity and mortality are stochastic, the rate-ofreturn...

We examine how U.S. monetary and fiscal policy shocks affect emerging markets’ aggregate economy. We find that emerging markets’ reaction to U.S. policy shocks differ widely from those of industrialized countries. Expansionary policies tend to depreciate the currencies of emerging...

Emerging economies are characterized by higher variability of consumption and real wages relative to output and a strongly countercyclical current account. A small open economy model with search‐matching frictions and countercyclical interest rate shocks can account for these regularities....

observed in the data.

This paper documents that, at the aggregate level, (i) real wages are positively correlated with output and, on average, lag output by about one quarter in emerging markets, while there are no systematic patterns in developed economies, (ii) real wage volatility (relative to output volatility)...