This paper extends Svensson (1994) ?simplest test?of in?ation target credibility inside a Bayesian econometric framework. We apply this approach to the initial years of the Eurosystem and obtain various estimates of ECB?s monetary policy credibility. Overall, our empirical evidence is robust to...

I show that accounting for a structural monetary policy shock associated with the 2007-2008 global financial crisis is crucial in order to obtain moderate empirical support for the Fisher effect in India since the liberalization of the early 90’s. Additional empirical evidence about the...

This paper assesses the sustainability of fiscal policy in India from 1950 to 2010 using multicointegration techniques. Starting from the seminal approach of Granger and Lee (1989), the analysis is extended through more powerful econometric methodologies, including several types of...

This paper reassesses the empirical evidence on the finance-growth nexus for India through a large annual data set (1950-2006) and contributes to the current literature in many respects. Differently from most previous research, the empirical evidence supports the ‘demand-following’...

This paper assesses the validity of the ECB ‘benign neglect’ approach towards foreign exchange markets. I extend the analysis performed in Tronzano (2008) on the U$/Euro rate, applying a wide range of conditional volatility models to Yen/Euro data from 1999 to 2007. An overall evaluation of...

examines the volatility of the U$/Euro exchange rate during the period 1999-2005. According to our estimates, the degree of volatility persistence, although statistically significant, is rather low; moreover, there is no evidence of an asymmetric response of predictable volatility to past...

This paper extends the literature on real exchange rate targeting inside a stochastic optimization framework where the real exchange rate displays long run mean reversion while temporarily reflecting a “liquidity effect”. When real exchange rate volatility is constant, an active...

This paper proposes a Bayesian extension of Svensson's (1991) test of target zone credibility. The credibility measures considered allow us to quantify the target zone's overall credibility at each point in time as well as a measure of long-run credibility. In an application of the new...

The theoretical framework developed in Baxter (1985) is adapted to test the credibility of French economic policy since the last EMS realignment. In line with findings from the target zone literature, a significant increase in credibility is documented for the 1988-1991 period; however, unlike...

This paper addresses an interesting theoretical intuition, originally put forward in De Grauwe (1989), according to which market efficiency should find stronger support in a pegged exchange rate regime rather than in a purely floating context. A cointegration-based empirical investigation on the...