An important assumption underlying traditional theories of financial time-series behaviour is that consecutive changes in the price of an asset (ie. asset returns) are independent of each other. For analysts seeking to predict the future value of an asset, this implies that the best step-ahead...

Purpose – To develop an integrated approach to forecasting spot foreign exchange rates by incorporating some principles underlying long-term dependence. Design/methodology/approach – The paper utilises the random-walk framework to develop a stochastic forecast model wherein the sign...

In recent years there has been an increased interest in the extent to which managers can improve their property portfolio position through international diversification. Much of this interest has centred on the use of various statistical/econometric tests of time‐varying correlations and...

Pooling the forecast outcomes from different models has been shown by Makridakis (1989), Clement (1989) and others to improve out-of-sample forecast test statistics beyond any of the individual component techniques. As well as conventional combining, a different approach to forecast combination...

The local Hurst exponent, a measure employed to detect the presence of dependence in a time series, may also be used to investigate the source of intraday variation observed in the returns in foreign exchange markets. Given that changes in the local Hurst exponent may be due to either a...

The local Hurst exponent, a measure employed to detect the presence of dependence in a time series, may also be used to investigate the source of intraday variation observed in the returns in foreign exchange markets. Given that changes in the local Hurst exponent may be due to either a...