We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to compare point predictions of gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that most SPF point predictions are quite close to the central tendencies of...

This article shows how to predict counterfactual discrete choice behavior when the presumed behavioral model partially identifies choice probabilities. The simple, general approach uses observable choice probabilities to partially infer the distribution of types in the population and then...

Censoring of outcomes (selection) is a common consequence of survey nonresponse and attrition in panels, and has received much attention. Joint censoring of regressors and outcomes is also common, but it has remained unexplored. This paper shows that the problem of identification when regressors...

This paper considers anew the simultaneity problem that arises when observations of transactions are used to study the demand behavior of price- taking consumers. Simultaneity is shown to be a problem of censored outcomes. This fact is used to obtain a basic negative finding on identification in...

We examine the behaviour of pedestrians wishing to cross a stream of trasffic at signalized intersections. We model each padestrian as making a desccrete crossing choice by comparing the gaps between vehicles in traffic to an individual-specific "critical gap" that characterizes the individual's...

Economists studying choice with partial knowledge typically assume that the decision maker places a subjective distribution on unknown quantities and maximizes expected utility. Someone lacking a subjective distribution faces a problem of choice under ambiguity. This article reviews recent...