Theory predicts that life cycle saving mechanisms will cause real exchange rate variations as the age structure varies. We investigate the impact of demography on the Swedish real exchange rate, measured as the real TCW index, during 1960 to 2000. Time series regressions show that the Swedish...

Macroeconomic theory predicts that variations in population cohort sizes will lead to demographically induced real exchange rate movements. While such effects have previously been established for individual countries, this paper exploits cross-sectional time series data to test the prediction...

Theory predicts that life cycle saving and consumption behaviour could cause real exchange rate variations as the age structure varies. Time series regressions show that the Swedish demographic structure has significant explanatory power on the real exchange rate during 1960 to 2002. A model...

This paper investigates whether the forecasting performance of Bayesian autoregressive and vector autoregressive models can be improved by incorporating prior beliefs on the steady state of the time series in the system. Traditional methodology is compared to the new framework-in which a...

In this paper, we study revisions of Swedish national accounts data. Three aspects of the revisions are considered: volatility, unbiasedness and forecast efficiency. Our results indicate that the properties of the revisions are more problematic for the production side than for the expenditure...

Real housing prices in Sweden have roughly doubled the last 15 years. The rise in housing prices has coincided with a rise in household debt, sparking debate about both the presence of financial imbalances in the Swedish economy and the macroeconomic effects that a correction of these imbalances...

In this paper, we evaluate two types of Swedish policy interest-rate ex-pectations: survey expectations and expectations inferred from market pricing. The data are drawn from the most prominent survey of finan-cial-market economists and from Swedish financial markets and the data are carefully...

In this paper, a Bayesian VAR model is used to study the effects of euro area shocks on GDP growth in the small open economy of Sweden. A novel feature is that the new policy uncertainty index of Baker et al.(2013) is introduced in the model. The model behaves well in terms of reasonable impulse...

In this paper, we assess the usefulness of constant gain least squares (CGLS) when forecasting the unemployment rate. Using quarterly data from 1970 to 2009, we conduct an out-of-sample forecast exercise in which univariate autoregressive models for the unemployment rate in Australia, Sweden,...

In recent years the central banks of Norway and Sweden have published their endogenous policy interest-rate forecasts. In this paper, we evaluate those forecasts alongside policy-rate expectations inferred from market pricing. We find that for both economies there are only small differences in...