This paper models the univariate dynamics of seasonally unadjusted quarterly macroeconomic time series for the Indian economy including industrial production, money supply (broad and narrow measures) and consumer price index. The seasonal integration-cointegration and the periodic models are...

We analyze the impact of weather shocks on price formation in spot and futures market for food in India where until the recent introduction of commodity futures markets in 2005, the transmission of these shocks to short-term (spot) price movements was unclear. Hitherto, the price discovery...

We analyze the impact of climate shocks on price formation in spot and futures market for food in India where until the recent introduction of commodity futures markets in 2005, the transmission of these shocks on short-term (spot) price movements was unclear. The existence of a futures market...

We analyze the impact of climate shocks on price formation in spot and futures market for food in India where until the recent introduction of commodity futures markets in 2005, the transmission of these shocks on short-term (spot) price movements was unclear. The existence of a futures market...

This paper models the seasonal dynamics in quarterly industrial production for India. For this, we extend the time-varying smooth transition autoregression (TV-STAR) model to allow for independent regime-switching behaviour in the deterministic seasonal and cyclical components. This yields the...

This paper models the univariate dynamics of seasonally unadjusted quarterly macroeconomic time series for the Indian economy including industrial production, money supply (broad and narrow measures) and consumer price index. The seasonal integration-cointegration and the periodic models are...

This paper describes business and growth rate cycles with special reference to the Indian economy. It uses the classical NBER approach to determine the timing of recessions and expansions in the Indian economy, as well as the chronology of growth rate cycles, viz., the timing of speedups and...

We analyse the determinants of the public's relative concerns about inflation and unemployment using responses to the Gallup Poll question on the relative seriousness of inflation and unemployment. We then estimate the rate of inflation that politicians will choose to impose on the US economy...