Modern monetary policymakers consider a huge amount of information in their evaluation of events and contingencies. However, most research on monetary policy relies on simple rules, and one relevant underpinning for this choice is the good empirical fit of the Taylor rule. This paper challenges...

This paper investigates policy deviations from linear Taylor rules motivated by the risk management approach followed by the Fed during the Greenspan era. We estimate a nonlinear monetary policy rule via a logistic smoothing transition regression model where policy-makers' judgment, proxied by...

The estimation of monetary policy rules suggests that the interest rates set by central banks move with a certain inertia. Although a number of hypotheses have been suggested to explain this phenomenon, its ultimate origin is unclear, thus delineating this issue as a modern "puzzle" in monetary...

Interest rates set by central banks puzzlingly move with a certain inertia. We show that household's preferences can be important determinants of the optimal interest rate inertia due to their impact on the efficiency of the monetary policy transmission mechanism.

In an open-economy faced with parameter uncertainty, this paper uses distribution forecasts to investigate the impact of alternative inflation targeting policies on macroeconomic volatility and their potential implications on financial stability. Theoretically, Domestic Inflation Targeting (DIT)...

In an open-economy faced with model uncertainty, this paper uses distribution forecasts to investigate the impact of alternative inflation targeting policies on macroeconomic volatility and their potential implications on financial stability. Theoretically, Domestic Inflation Targeting (DIT)...

Ample differences in sectoral price stickiness is a widely documented fact. This paper shows that in presence of real shocks, heterogeneity in sectoral price stickiness plays a key role in the determination of the aggregate dynamics. The larger price stickiness heterogeneity, the smaller the...

Since the ’80s the volatility of output growth and inflation experienced by several industrialized countries has remarkably declined, what has been dubbed the “Great Moderation”. Various explanations have been proposed and likely all play some role. This paper shows that when an industrial...

This paper relates the central bank's preferences on the inflation index and on the degree of smoothness of the interest rate to the quality of its forecasts and the expected perturbing impact of several shocks. The framework is a Markov jump-linear-quadratic system for optimal policy with model...

This paper focuses on optimal monetary policy in presence of uncertainty of the structural parameters that characterize an open economy. The framework is a Markov jump-linear-quadratic new Keynesian model, where the central bank searches for the optimal policy in a non certainty equivalence...