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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010596677
The Stock Market Capitalization (SMC) of a country, defined as the aggregated market value equity of companies in the respective equity market, is commonly used to measure the widening and deepening of stock market activity. SMC also influences economic growth predictions and public consensus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010549395
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005431059
We develop a model to explain the differential incidence of the favourite-longshot bias in parallel sectors of the pari-mutuel horserace betting market. Hypotheses are derived from the model and these are tested, using UK data, to explore the origins of the bias. Significant variations in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005683079
This short paper offers a critical appraisal of a recent contribution to the debate on efficiency in the particular context of horserace betting markets. A number of specific criticisms are detailed. These include the failure of the authors to capture inefficiency signals which relate to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005467978
This paper concludes that a market for state-contingent claims (UK horserace betting) displays evidence of pervasive but heterogeneous forms of inefficiency, in significant contrast to earlier investigations. Using hitherto unavailable data, comparison of notional returns implicit in parallel...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009210013
This article offers a new perspective on efficiency in betting markets by examining the degree to which finishing order in horse races corresponds to probabilities inherent in odds across different categories of horse race. The application of an exploded logit procedure reveals a significantly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009227617
In this paper, we examine the role played by the holders of privileged information (insiders) in stimulating trading volume which adds explanatory power to a price-based model of returns in a market where the actions of insiders can be isolated - a pari-mutuel betting market. We conduct...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009276925
Forecasting methods are routinely employed to predict the outcome of competitive events (CEs) and to shed light on the factors that influence participants’ winning prospects (e.g., in sports events, political elections). Combining statistical models’ forecasts, shown to be highly successful...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010577605
Accurately estimating the winning probabilities of participants in competitive events, such as elections and sports events, represents a challenge to standard forecasting frameworks such as regression or classification. They are not designed for modeling the competitive element, whereby a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008507420