Univariate time series models for consumption, nominal interest rat es, and prices each appear to have a single unit-root before 1979. If nominal interest rates have a unit-root , but inflation and forecast errors do not, then ex ante real interest rates have a unit-root and are therefore...

Using a panel of 21 OECD countries and 40 years of annual data, we find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have business cycles that fluctuate more closely. That is, fiscal convergence (in the form of persistently similar ratios of government surplus/deficit to GDP)...

This paper explores the relationship between inflation and the existence of a local, nominal, publicly-traded, long-maturity, domestic-currency bond market. Bond holders are exposed to capital losses through inflation and therefore represent a potential anti-inflationary force; we ask whether...

In contrast to earlier recessions, the monetary regimes of many small economies have not changed in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. This is due in part to the fact that many small economies continue to use hard exchange rate fixes, a reasonably durable regime. However, most of the...

This paper explores the relationship between inflation and the existence of a publicly-traded, long-maturity, nominal, domestic-currency bond market. Bond holders suffer from inflation and could be a potent anti-inflationary force; I ask whether their presence is apparent empirically. I use a...

Governments have rarely imposed or removed capital controls in response to short-term fluctuations in output, the terms of trade, or financial-stability considerations. We show empirically that controls on the international flow of financial capital are highly durable, often remaining in place...

We investigate simulations of exact solutions of the stochastic Korteweg–deVries equation under additive noise. We compare the expectation values of the exact solutions to theoretical expectation values and to the numerical simulations of the stochastic Korteweg–deVries equation with and...

This paper develops a simple but general methodology to estimate the expected intertemporal marginal rate of substitution or "EMRS", using only data on asset prices and returns. Our empirical strategy is general, and allows the EMRS to vary arbitrarily over time. A novel feature of our technique...