This paper provides the theoretical and operational framework for estimating past values of relevant time series starting from a (limited) information set. We consider a general approach that includes as special cases time series aggregation and temporal and/or spatial disaggregation problems....

This paper studies the risk spillover among US Industrial Sectors and focuses on the connection between credit and liquidity risks. The proposed methodology is based on quantile regressions and considers the movements of CDS Industrial Sector Indices depending on common risk factors such as...

The aim of this work is to investigate whether the combination of forecasts plays an important role in the improvement of forecast accuracy Particular attention is paid to: (a) the methods of forecasting (the methods compared are neural networks, fuzzy logic, GARCH models, switching regime and...

This paper compares the performance of a quadratic utility function and discusses how to change its characteristic parameter, ARA, so that rating is consistent with return and risk measurements. In particular, this parameter is modified in such a way that a positive return Fund has always a...

This paper investigates the key role played by different factors, such as the use of Asset Backed Commercial Paper as collaterals in the short-term debt market, credit risk and the injection of liquidity by Central Banks through so-called unconventional measures, on the persistent spread during...

This paper provides a new algorithm for estimating state space dynamic models and, as an example, it considers the estimation of time-varying parameter models. The novel elements of the algorithm are: a simple, easily implementable, square root method which is shown to solve the numerical...

This work deals with multivariate stochastic volatility models, which account for a time-varying variance-covariance structure of the observable variables. We focus on a special class of models recently proposed in the literature and assume that the covariance matrix is a latent variable which...

The intent of this paper is the construction of an econometric model able to produce reliable and reasonable forecasts for the US dollar/Euro real exchange rate. In order to achieve this aim, an area-wide model is analysed. The aggregation is motivated by the fact that the Euro-zone is under a...

This work deals with multivariate stochastic volatility models, which account for a time-varying variance-covariance structure of the observable variables. We focus on a special class of models recently proposed in the literature and assume that the covariance matrix is a latent variable which...