This paper analyzes how including options in the estimation of a dynamic term structure model impacts the way it captures term structure movements. Two versions of a multi-factor Gaussian model are compared: One adopting only bonds data, and the other adopting a joint dataset of bonds and...

We provide approximation formulas for at-the-money asian option prices to extract volatility risk premium from a joint dataset of bonds and option prices. The dynamic model generates stochastic volatility and a time-varying volatility risk premium, which explicitly depends on the average cross...

Forecasting financial crises has enormous practical importance. In this paper we propose a new measure of risk of extreme loss using data of a cross-section of asset prices. This measure presents as practical advantage the fact that it does not depend on the existence of a liquid market of...

Multivariate Affine term structure models have been increasingly used for pricing derivatives in fixed income markets. In these models, uncertainty of the term structure is driven by a state vector, while the short rate is an affine function of this vector. The model is characterized by a...

The stochastic volatility model (SVPS) proposed by Fouque et al. (2000a) explores a rapid timescale fluctuation of the volatility process to end up with a parsimonious way of capturing the volatility smile implied by close to the money options. In this article we test the SVFPS model using...

This study analyzes the adverse selection cost component embedded in the spreads of Brazilian stocks. We show that it is higher than in the U.S. market and presents an intraday U-shape pattern (i.e., higher at the beginning and at the end of the day). In addition, we investigate the...

In the last years, regulatory agencies of many countries in the world, following recomendations of Basel Committee, have compeled financial institutions to maintain a minimum capital requirements to cover market and credit risks. This paper investigates the consequences about social welfare,...

In this paper, we analyze the importance of curvature term structure movements on forecasts of interest rate means. An extension of the exponential three-factor Diebold and Li (2006) model is proposed, where a fourth factor captures a second type of curvature. The new factor increases model...