We apply a new methodology, modified Granger causality tests, to further analyze the information flows between earnings and forecasts. Our application focuses on the dynamic interaction between reported earnings and analysts’ forecasts. Based on long time series of analyst earnings...

We study the market reaction of Australian firms issuing management earnings forecasts (MEF). Specifically, we measure and distinguish between the immediate and post-earnings announcement impact of MEF. Our analysis is conditioned on growth/value characteristics and news surprise and we test for...

In this paper we evaluate the performance of three alternate default-risk models, seeking to find that measure which performs best, using a comprehensive sample drawn from the Australian equities market. The first two models are option-based models and are derived from Merton's (1974) insight...

In this paper we investigate the contention that the Fama-French (1993) model's ability to explain cross-sectional variation in equity returns occurs because the Fama-French factors, SMB and HML, are proxying for default risk. To assess the default risk hypothesis, we augment the CAPM and the...

We test whether default risk is related to equity returns using the Fama and MacBeth [Fama, E.F., MacBeth, J., 1973. Risk, return, and equilibrium: empirical tests. Journal of Political Economy 81, 607-636.] regression framework. The proxy we use for default risk is the default probability...

We examine more than 5000 recommendations made by Australian brokers in the period 1996-2001. We find evidence that initiating recommendations produce greater share price responses than continuing recommendations, particularly for hold, underperform and sell recommendations. We also find...

We study information flows between earnings and forecasts, using suitably adapted Granger causality tests. This approach complements existing cross-sectional studies by abstracting from stock market reactions to information, and focussing on dynamic interactions between information flows...