In this paper we extend the model of Easley and O'Hara (1992) to allow the arrival rates of informed and uninformed trades to be time-varying and forecastable. We specify a generalized autoregressive bivariate process for the arrival rates of informed and uninformed trades and estimate the model...

We propose a dynamic econometric microstructure model of trading, and we investigate how the dynamics of trades and trade composition interact with the evolution of market liquidity, market depth, and order flow. We estimate a bivariate generalized autoregressive intensity process for the...

Order flow is toxic when it adversely selects market makers, who may be unaware they are providing liquidity at a loss. We present a new procedure to estimate flow toxicity based on volume imbalance and trade intensity (the VPIN toxicity metric). VPIN is updated in volume time, making it...

Andersen and Bondarenko's paper “VPIN and the Flash Crash” is essentially a comment on our 2011 Journal of Portfolio Management paper using our measure of order toxicity, VPIN. Andersen and Bondarenko dispute our empirical findings and argue that VPIN essentially does not work. This is...

We investigate the role of information-based trading in affecting asset returns. We show in a rational expectation example how private information affects equilibrium asset returns. Using a market microstructure model, we derive a measure of the probability of information-based trading, and we...

The authors investigate the informational role of volume and its applicability for technical analysis. They develop a new equilibrium model in which aggregate supply is fixed and traders receive signals with differing quality. The authors show that volume provides information on information...

This paper investigates the informational role of transactions volume in options markets. We develop an asymmetric information model in which informed traders may trade in option or equity markets. We show conditions under which informed traders trade options, and we investigate the implications...

We investigate the implications of ambiguity aversion for performance and regulation of markets. In our model, agents' decision making may incorporate both risk and ambiguity, and we demonstrate that nonparticipation arises from the rational decision by some traders to avoid ambiguity. In...

Using the model structure of Easley and O'Hara, we demonstrate how the parameters of the market-maker's beliefs can be estimated from trade data. We show how to extract information from both trade and no-trade intervals, and how intraday and interday data provide information. We derive and...