The current paper aims to examine strategic predictions (with forecast horizons greater than six months) via the empirical probability (EP) technique. This technique was proposed initially to examine short-term tactical predictions (with forecast horizons less than three months), as set out in...

Using real financial data, this study examines the influence of trend direction and strength on judgmental exchange rate forecasting performance and consistency. Participants generated forecasts for each of 20 series. Half of the participants also answered two additional questions regarding...

An experiment is reported which compares directional forecasting performance of experts, novices and simple statistical models over three time horizons on a task involving probabilistic forecasts of exchange rate movements. Probability-judgement accuracy analyses illustrated no clear overall...

‘Quasirationality’ (i.e., the combination of intuitive and analytic thought) is increasingly considered to be widespread and beneficial in management. This paper provides an overview of this concept as it is defined by Cognitive Continuum Theory (Hammond, 1996, 2000), and highlights the...