A new version of the PAGE model, PAGE2002, has been used to calculate the marginal impacts of CO₂, CH₄ and SF₆ emissions based on Scenario A2 of the IPCC. The mean marginal impact of CO₂ is found to be US$19 per tonne of carbon (or about US$5 per tonne of CO₂), for methane it is US$105 per...

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is the value of the climate change impacts from 1 tonne of carbon emitted today as CO₂, aggregated over time and discounted back to the present day. We used PAGE2002, the same probabilistic integrated assessment model as used by the Stern Review (Stern et al.,...

A new version of the PAGE integrated assessment model, PAGE09, is introduced. The most important scientific, impact, emission and adaptation inputs in the latest default version of the model, PAGE09 v1.7 are described. The scientific and economic impact results are presented for a business as...

High crude oil prices, uncertainties about the consequences of climate change and the eventual decline of conventional oil production raise the issue of alternative fuels, such as non-conventional oil and biofuels. This paper describes a simple probabilistic model of the costs of...