Showing 1 - 10 of 162
Reserving in general insurance is often done using chain-ladder-type methods.  We propose a method aimed at situations where there is a sudden change in the economic environment affecting the policies for all accident years in the reserving triangle.  It is shown that methods for forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011004199
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009246214
Reserving in general insurance is often done using chain-ladder-type methods. We propose a method aimed at situations where there is a sudden change in the economic environment affecting the policies for all accident years in the reserving triangle. It is shown that methods for forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008643681
In this paper, we consider the identification problem arising in the age-period-cohort models, as well as in the extended chain ladder model. We propose a canonical parametrization based on the accelerations of the trends in the three factors. This parametrization is exactly identified. It eases...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005549195
It is of considerable interest to forecast future mesothelioma mortality. No measures for exposure are available so it is not straight forward to apply a doseresponse model. It is proposed to model the counts of deaths directly using a Poisson regression with an age-period-cohort structure, but...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010823428
It is of considerable interest to forecast future mesothelioma mortality.  No measures for exposure are available so it is not straight forward to apply a dose-response model.  It is proposed to model the counts of deaths directly using a Poisson regression with an age-period-cohort structure,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011004450
type="main" xml:id="rssa12051-abs-0001" <title type="main">Summary</title> <p>It is of considerable interest to forecast future mesothelioma mortality. No measures for exposure are available so it is not straightforward to apply a dose–response model. It is proposed to model the counts of deaths directly by using a Poisson...</p>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011148453
Many real life regression problems exhibit some kind of calender time dependency and it is often of interest to predict the behavior of the regression function along this calender time direction. This can be formulated as a regression model with an added latent time series and the task is to be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005730373
We consider the identification problem that arises in the age-period-cohort models as well as in the extended chain-ladder model. We propose a canonical parameterization based on the accelerations of the trends in the three factors. This parameterization is exactly identified and eases...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005559280
It has long been known that maximum likelihood estimation in a Poisson model reproduces the chain-ladder technique. We revisit this model. A new canonical parametrisation is proposed to circumvent the inherent identification problem in the parametrisation. The maximum likelihood estimators for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008469678