Cyclically adjusted budget balance (CAB) is a widely cited and widely used concept in the evaluation of fiscal situations. The key idea behind it involves the identification of potential levels of economic variables. There are two recently used methods: the aggregate approach and the...

Cyclically adjusted budget deficit (CAB) is a widely cited and used concept in the evaluation of fiscal situation. The key idea behind it is to separate temporary and/or non-discretionary effects on budget deficit from the underlying balance and/or effects of discretionary measures of fiscal...

The housing market becomes more essential in monetary policy. This paper attempts to analyse the role of the housing market in the monetary transmission mechanism with special focus on Hungary. The study first summarizes the experiences of developed countries, paying special attention to issues...

A ciklikusan igazított államháztartási deficit a költségvetési helyzet értékelésére széles körben alkalmazott fogalom. Alapgondolata az, hogy az államháztartási hiányon belül el kell választani az átmeneti és/vagy nem diszkrecionális hatásokat a deficit tartós...

A lakáspiac a monetáris politika alakításának egyre fontosabb tényezője lesz. A ta nulmány a lakáspiac monetáris transzmisszióban betöltött szerepét igyekszik bemu tatni, külön figyelmet fordítva a magyar folyamatokra. A szerzők elsőként a fejlett országok tapasztalatait...

A house is generally considered as a ‘roof over one’s head’, however, housing can be regarded as an investment or asset. Our paper focuses on this function of dwellings and develops a stochastic portfolio choice model for the housing market, which is easy to incorporate into medium and...

As significant part of national wealth, households’ wealth is the central issue in both policy debate and academic literature. Nevertheless, in Hungary little effort has been made so far to conduct thorough evaluation of households’ wealth for the last decade. Under the auspices of ‘the...

Potential output figures are important ingredients of many macroeconomic models and are routinely applied by policy makers and global agencies. Despite its widespread use, estimation of potential output is at best uncertain and depends heavily on the model. The task of estimating potential...

This paper analyses Hungarian inflation expectations drawn from Reuters survey of professional forecasters. Comparing individual forecasts to macroeconomic consensus leads to the conclusion that - in line with theoretical considerations - averaging single projections results in significant gains...

One important characteristic of dwellings is that housing can be regarded as an investment or asset. Our paper focuses on this function of dwellings and develops a stochastic portfolio choice model for the housing market, which is easy to incorporate into medium and large-scale macro models....