If strong and persistent misalignments of the exchange rate are caused by non-fundamental influences, such that a return to equilibrium is hampered by a coordination failure among fundamentals-based traders, then central bank intervention may act as a coordinating signal, encouraging stabilizing...

This article investigates whether there exists a consensus among foreign exchange rate forecasters. The data set under consideration is the semi-annual survey of the Wall Street Journal . In most of all cases we find evidence in favor of a consensus. However, in a few cases, no-consensus is...

In this paper a two country new open economy macroeconomics model is applied to analyze both the short-run and the steady state macroeconomic effects of protection. Similar to the traditional Mundell Fleming approach we find that the imposition of a permanent tariff entails a demand diversion...

In this study a regime-switching approach is applied to estimate the chartist and fundamentalist (c&f) exchange rate model originally proposed by Frankel and Froot (1986). The c&f model is tested against alternative regime-switching specifications applying likelihood ratio tests. Nested...

The target zone model of Krugman (1991) has failed empirically. In this paper, we develop a model of the exchange rate with heterogeneous agents in a free floating and a target zone regime. We show that this simple model mimics the empirical puzzles of exchange rates: excessive volatility, fat...

This paper studies the effects of ECB communications about unconventional monetary policy operations on the sovereign spreads of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain relative to Germany between 2008 and 2012. More than fifty events concerning non-standard operations are identified and...

This paper investigates the impact of a changing market environment on the pricing of CDS spreads written on debt from EURO STOXX 50 firms. A Panel Smooth Transition Regression reveals that parameter estimates of standard CDS fundamentals are time-varying depending on current values of a set of...

We use a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model to study nonlinearities in the expectation-formation process in the U.S. stock market. To this end, we use data from the Livingston survey to investigate how the importance of regressive and extrapolative expectations fluctuates over time...

In this paper we empirically investigate the relationship between capital flows and exchange rates in India based on a new index of real effective exchange rates for the Indian Rupiah. Instead of using consumer price indices we deflate exchange rates by MSCI asset price indices. The...