Recent research suggests that social cost-benefit analysis should be con- ducted with a declining discount rate. For instance, Newell and Pizer [23] show that the U.S. certainty-equivalent discount rate declines through time, using a simple autoregressive model of U.S. interest rates. This paper...

We compare models for forecasting growth and inflation in the enlarged euro area. Forecasts are built from univariate autoregressive and single-equation models. The analysis is undertaken for both individual countries and EU aggregate variables. Aggregate forecasts are constructed by both...

This paper employs a new methodology for measuring the contribution of growth and interest rate differentials to the half-life of deviations from Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). Our method is based on directly comparing the impulse response function of a VAR model, where the real exchange rate is...

Evaluating investments with long-term consequences using discount rates that decline with the time horizon, (Declining Discount Rates or DDRs) means that future welfare changes are of greater consequence in present value terms. Recent work in this area has turned towards operationalising the...

We estimate schedules of declining discount rates for cost benefit analysis in the UK. We highlight the importance of model selection for this task and hence for the evaluation of long-term investments, namely climate change prevention and nuclear build.

This paper employs a new methodology for measuring the contribution of growth and interest rate differentials to the half-life of deviations from Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). Our method is based on directly comparing the impulse response function of a VAR model, where the real exchange rate is...

We propose a new methodology for decomposing the persistence of deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP). By directly comparing the impulse response function (IRF) of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, where the real exchange rate is Granger caused by a set of candidate variables, with...