We present a definition of increasing uncertainty, in which an elementary increase in the uncertainty of any act corresponds to the addition of an `elementary bet' that increases consumption by a fixed amount in (relatively) `good' states and decreases consumption by a fixed (and possibly...

Analysis of the equity premium puzzle has focused on private sector capital markets. The object of this paper is to consider the welfare and policy implications of each of the broad classes of explanations of the equity premium puzzle. As would be expected, the greater the deviation from the...

We provide a simple and intuitive set of axioms that allow for a direct and constructive proof of the Choquet Expected Utility representation for decision making under uncertainty.

Excessive volatility of asset prices like that generated in the 'noise trader' model of De Long et al. is one factor that plausibly might contribute to an explanation of the equity premium. We extend the De Long et al. model to allow for privatization of publicly-owned assets and assess the...

We examine a dynamic model of English auctions with independent private values. There is a single object for sale and it is not possible for the seller, who has a value of zero for the object, to commit not to sell in the future if a sale is not accomplished today. The seller may be able to...

We confront two common objections to Harsanyi's impartial observer theorem: one to do with 'fairness', and the other to do with different individuals' having different attitudes toward risk. Both these objections can be accommodated if we drop the reduction axiom: in particular, if we...

This paper contains an analysis of a simple principal-agent problem illustrating possible problems that arise when the principal ascribes to the agent subjective probabilities and utilities that are implied by the subjective expected utility model but do not represent the agent's beliefs and...

We study the probabilistic distribution of identical successive units. We represent the allocation process as the filling of an urn with balls of different colors (one color per agent). Applications include the scheduling of homogeneous tasks among workers and allocating new workers between...

This paper presents the nonlinear IV methodology as an effective inferential basis for nonstationary panels. The nonlinear IV method resolves the inferential difficulties in testing for unit roots arising from the intrinsic heterogeneities and cross-dependencies of panel models. Individual units...

In this paper, we propose a method of analyzing time series, called the spatial analysis. The analysis consists mainly of the statistical inference on the distribution given by the expected local time, which we define to be the spatial distribution, of a given time series. The spatial...