We use a two-good dynamic optimizing small open economy model to provide a new explanation of the J-Curve phenomenon in terms of habit persistence in consumption and sluggishness in capital adjustment. The results differ markedly depending on the permanence or temporary nature of the relative...

In recent years China has experienced two forms of extreme macroeconomic imbalance: an expenditure imbalance in the sense of very high investment and very low consumption, giving rise to rapid capital accumulation; and an imbalance between expenditure and production, producing external...

Before the crisis, there were strong arguments for reducing global imbalances. As a result of the crisis, there have been significant changes in saving and investment patterns across the world and imbalances have narrowed considerably. Does this mean that imbalances are a problem of the past?...

Using empirical evidence from panel analysis of current account dynamics and of bilateral trade balances, the paper argues that the large German current account surplus during the 2000s can be explained by an increasing gap between productivity growth in manufacturing vis-à-vis services. Such a...

This contribution shows that the persistence and the time of occurence of the shock matter in determining the long-run macroeconomic aggregates’ responses after permanent and transitory terms of trade shocks. Within a simple two-good small open economy model, we differentiate analyticaly...

Switzerland has had a long-standing surplus on its current account. But over the past 15 years that surplus has surged to levels unmatched by nearly any other OECD country at any point. This paper looks at the surplus from a balance of payments vantage point as well as from the optic of the...

We investigate for 26 OECD economies if their current account imbalances are driven by stochastic trends. Standard ADF results are contrasted with tests accounting for the bounded support of the current account. Neglecting the latter feature might give misleading results in the sense that ADF...

Intertemporal models of the current account suggest that temporary income shocks are fully reflected in a country's net foreign asset position, so that agents invest abroad any savings generated by a positive income shock. On the other hand, a stylized fact in international economics is that...

We specify a VEC model based on six main macroeconomic imbalances to explain the Great European Recession, in Germany, France, Spain and Italy, from 1999 to 2013, estimating their long-term relationships. We focus on employment and unemployment as the main imbalances and identify consumption and...

We use a two-sector neoclassical open economy model with traded and non-traded goods and endogenous markups to investigate both the aggregate and the sectoral ef- fects of temporary fiscal shocks. One central finding is that both the sectoral capital intensities and endogenous markups matter in...