The Canadian Economic and Fiscal Model (CEFM) is used by the Department of Finance to forecast key economic and fiscal indicators as well as to simulate the economic and fiscal effects of policy or economic changes. This paper documents the dynamic forecasting and simulation properties of the...

The first version of the Canadian Economic and Fiscal Model (CEFM) was completed in 1986. Since then, CEFM has been used by the Department of Finance for macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis. The model has gone through many rounds of revision since its original version. This report...

Labour force participation rates vary greatly by age, with persons 55 and over having much lower participation rates than younger persons. Consequently, changes in the demographic composition of the population can exert a long-run effect on aggregate participation rates. In the third article of...

This paper reports empirical evidence on the determinants of the decision to stay in school for a group of young Quebecers. The model used is derived from the theory of investment in human capital. The independent variables refer to personal characteristics, family environment, school...

Trend productivity growth is a crucial determinant of future living standards as well as fiscal balances. In this article, Benoit Robidoux and Bing-Sun Wong from Finance Canada examine the issue of whether trend productivity growth has increased in Canada and conclude that in fact it has. If...

This paper introduces a dynamic general equilibrium tax model of the Canadian economy. The model incorporates each of the major taxes in Canada and features adjustment dynamics, intertemporal optimization, imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign goods and assets, and industry...

Aiyagari and McGrattan (1998) developed a model in which optimal net government debt in the steady state is positive. This result arises from a particular form of financial market incompleteness: that households cannot buy insurance against prolonged spells of low income. In this paper we extend...

In recent years, neural networks have received an increasing amount of attention among macroeconomic forecasters because of their potential to detect and reproduce linear and nonlinear relationships among a set of variables. This paper provides a highly accessible introduction to neural networks...

When economic data released in late 2001 suggested an economic slowdown, two questions immediately arose: what impact will the slowdown in the economy have on the budgetary balance and to what extent can fiscal policy mitigate this slowdown. The former is concerned with the budgetary position...

It is well known that over the next several decades, there will be significant changes in the age structure of OECD populations. According to recent demographic projections by the United Nations, the share of the old-aged population is expected to double, on average, over the next 50 years in...