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Diba and Grossman (1988) and Hamilton and Whiteman (1985) recommended unit root tests for rational bubbles. They argued that if stock prices are not more explosive than dividends, then it can be concluded that rational bubbles are not present. Evans (1991) demonstrated that these tests will fail...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005537502
This paper develops an early warning system for banking crises in the G20 countries, with the inclusion of capital account openness indicators. Results suggest that the capital account openness demonstrates a significant predictive power on systemic banking crises, and the impact is related with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010781978
This article applies a new statistical moment, Trimmed L-comoment, in modelling Expected Shortfall (<italic>ES</italic>) and exploits an empirical study on China's stock markets. In comparison with existing models, out-of-sample forecasts and backtests indicate superior accuracy and precision for the models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010976506
Recent literature has attempted to apply Extreme Value Theory (EVT) in the identification of currency crises. However, these approaches seem to have confused the thresholds in extreme modeling with the cutoffs of currency crises. Our paper proposes a Return Level Identification Approach, also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010743996
Johansen and Sornette proposes that the crash has fundamentally an endogenous origin and exogenous shocks only serve as triggering factors. This endogenous force is shown in price as power law log-periodicity (PLLP) signature prior to a crash. We estimate the highly nonlinear model developed by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005706279
This paper focuses on how the household saving rate should be measured. The current method used in China to measure the saving rate is compared with that used in the U.S. Significant differences in concept and scope are discovered. Using these differences as a basis, we make relevant adjustments...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005290446
This paper provides a new estimation method for the marginal expected shortfall (MES) based on multivariate extreme value theory. In contrast to previous studies, the method does not assume specific dependence structure among bank equity returns and is applicable to both large and small systems....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010659996
A parental seller with market power to some degree in its product market can earn rents. In this context, there is a gain to granting credit for the purchase of the product and thus the establishment of captive finance company for expanding the sales by offering loans to consumers who need...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005086411
A holdup model is analyzed in which one party, the seller, has an investment project that the other party, the buyer, can subsidize. The investment project remains the seller's; she cannot transfer her entire control rights to it. In particular, she can always refuse to allow the buyer to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005086412
This paper develops a limiting theory for Wald tests of weak exogeneity in error correction models (ECMs). It is well known that Wald statistics on cointegrated systems may involve nonstandard distribution and nuisance parameters, if $I(1)$ variables are not negligible in the statistics. To...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005086413