Previous studies find that the interest rate term spread predicts real U.S. economic activity. We show that this relationship breaks down for the 1990s and suggest that its earlier success was due to high and volatile inflation. We find, however, that the high-yield spread (HYS) between "junk...

We examine the determinants of capital flows to four developing countries during the 1990s using an explicitly disequilibrium econometric framework in which the supply and demand for capital are not necessarily equal and the actual amount of the flow is determined by the ‘short side’ of the...

We examine the determinants of capital flows to four developing countries during the 1990s using an explicitly disequilibrium econometric framework in which the supply and demand for capital are not necessarily equal and the actual amount of the flow is determined by the ‘short side’ of the...

In a case study of six East Asian economies, we use dynamic factor analysis to estimate a regional component of the exchange market pressure index (EMPI) as a measure of regional financial stress. The extent to which this indicator is explained by regional economic and financial factors is...

Muchos problemas del desarrollo van más allá de las fronteras nacionales y tienen un carácter regional e incluso global. El reconocimiento de estos retos, los cuales van de la transmisión de enfermedades entre fronteras hasta la dispersión de inestabilidad financiera global, ha llevado a...

Muchos problemas del desarrollo van más allá de las fronteras nacionales y tienen un carácter regional e incluso global. El reconocimiento de estos retos, los cuales van de la transmisión de enfermedades entre fronteras hasta la dispersión de inestabilidad financiera global, ha llevado a...

An objective of IMF programs is to help countries improve their access to international capital markets. In this paper, we examine if Fund programs influence the ability of developing country issuers to tap international bond markets and whether they improve spreads paid on the bonds issued. We...