This paper provides a counterexample to the simplest version of the redistribution models considered by Judd (1985) in which the government chooses an optimal distortionary tax on capitalists to finance a lump-sum payment to workers. I show that the steady-state optimal tax on capital income is...

An argument that variations of extant general-equilibrium monetary models can generate real-time economic forecasts comparable in accuracy to those contained in the Federal Reserve Board's "Greenbook" briefing documents.

An extension of the standard neoclassical growth model, demonstrating that the optimal steady-state tax on capital income can be positive, negative, or zero, depending on the level of monopoly profits and the degree to which profits can be taxed.

A much debated question among economists is the usefulness of the Phillips curve as a tool for forecasting inflation. This Economic Letter presents some quantitative comparisons between a Phillips curve-based inflation forecast and an alternative forecast that is constructed as a weighted moving...

Economists use the term "bubble" to describe an asset price that has risen above the level justified by economic fundamentals, as measured by the discounted stream of expected future cash flows that will accrue to the owner of the asset. The dramatic rise in U.S. stock prices during the late...

This Economic Letter examines some historical links between speculative bubbles, technological innovation, and capital misallocation.

The development of a real business cycle model in which government fiscal variables such as tax rates and public expenditures are endogenous. The authors characterize the "optimal" behavior of these policy variables over the business cycle and relate this behavior to movements in private-sector...

This paper develops a one-sector real business cycle model in which competitive firms allocate resources for the production of goods, investment in new capital, and maintenance of existing capital. Firms also choose the utilization rate of existing capital. A higher utilization rate leads to...