A simple construction that will be referred to as an error-duration model is shown to generate fractional integration and long memory. An error-duration representation also exists for many familiar ARMA models, making error duration an alternative to autoregression for explaining dynamic...

This paper presents a numerical algorithm for computing full information maximum likelihood (FIML) and nonlinear three-stage least squares (3SLS) coefficient estimates for large nonlinear macroeconomic models. The new algorithm, which is demonstrated by actually computing FIML and 3SLS...

Evolutionary game theory provides a fresh perspective on the prospects that agents with heterogeneous expectations might eventually come to agree on a single expectation corresponding to the efficient markets hypothesis. We establish conditions where agreement on a unique forecast is stable, but...