Almost all relevant literature has characterized implied volatility as a biased predictor of realized volatility. In this paper we provide new time series techniques to investigate the validity of this finding in several foreign exchange options markets, including the Euro market. First, we...

In this paper we analyse the purchasing power parity (PPP) persistence puzzle using a unique data set of black market real exchange rates for 36 emerging market economies and (exact and approximate) median unbiased univariate and panel estimation methods. We construct bootstrap confidence...

Commodity futures market efficiency has commonly been investigated in the standard I(1)-I(0) cointegration framework and it has provided inconclusive and conflicting results. However, recent empirical studies have found that the spot-futures basis is a fractionally integrated or long memory...

This paper applies new time-series procedures to examine the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a secular deterioration in relative primary commodity prices and the nature of their persistence. Employing a dataset of 24 relative commodity prices for the 1900-98 period, the pervasiveness of the...

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the ability of dividend ratios to predict the UK equity premium. Specifically, we apply the Goyal and Welch (2003) methodology to equity premia derived from the UK FTSE All-Share index. This approach provides a powerful graphical diagnostic for predictive...

The Prebisch-Singer hypothesis is often popularised as implying a declining long-run trend in primary commodity prices relative to manufactures, and conventional datasets to examine the hypothesis typically commence at the beginning of the 20th century. Theoretical rationales include the...

The ability of futures markets to predict subsequent spot prices has been a controversial topic for a number of years. Empirical evidence to date is mixed; for any given market, some studies find evidence of efficiency, others of inefficiency. In part, these apparently conflicting findings reflect...

This study employs daily data for 14 commodities and three financial assets 1990–2009 to explore the impact of the time series properties of the futures‐spot basis and the cost of carry on forward market unbiasedness. The main result is that the basis of 16 assets exhibits both long memory...